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09-Oct-2017 17:57

The government will likely also continue to seek alliances with international partners, possibly by balancing Russia, China and the U.S., to combat Jihadist influences in Afghanistan and in the region.The Uzbeks in ISIS, similarly, have fought with other Russian- or Turkic-speakers.It is likely that around 80 percent of the approximately 3,000 Central Asians in Syria are in the KTJ, IBB or other al-Qaeda-aligned groups.Ironically, in this case, the Taliban has achieved an objective that the Americans could not.For Uzbekistan’s government, this is also good news, but it will add a new element of pressure on Tashkent.Since then, the IMU has been silent and can for the most part now be considered extinct.

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Nonetheless, serious concerns remain about terrorism in Uzbekistan.Syria did not only have greater religious and historical significance than Afghanistan, where the IMU was based.Syria was also logistically much easier to reach – mostly overland via Istanbul, a destination accessible by flight from Central Asia, Russia or the Middle East.IMPLICATIONS: The Taliban did not take kindly to Ghazi’s pledge of loyalty to Al-Baghdadi, especially since Ghazi did so after denouncing the Taliban and accusing them of lying about Mullah Umar still being alive (Ghazi proved to be correct on this point, as the Taliban later admitted Mullah Umar was indeed dead).

As punishment for this betrayal, in late 2015 the Taliban killed (or severely injured) Ghazi and many IMU members at a base in Zabul Province, as revealed by photos posted on Facebook and other Taliban claims.Watching all of this action in Syria from its hideouts in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the IMU – perhaps surprisingly – chose to discontinue its historical fealty to al-Qaeda and to diverge from the alliance patterns of the majority of the Uzbek militants in Syria, who were part of a coalition with al-Qaeda.